Can Russia’s army still bring Wagner into line? | DW News
The Wagner Group’s armed rebellion has revealed major tensions behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a series TV of interviews on Sunday. “We’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade,“ Blinken told NBC. “It is too soon to tell exactly where they go, and when they get there. But certainly, we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.“ US officials expect to learn more details soon about the situation in Russia, including the terms of the deal brokered by Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko. “It may be that Putin didn’t want to debase himself to the level of negotiating directly with Prigozhin,“ Blinken said in an interview on ABC. He added: “I don’t think we’ve seen the final act.“
Nikolai Petrov, a Russian politics specialist who works for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told DW that the last days revealed that the Russian army and state were not as strong as had been considered and that this served as a “game changer.“
Petrov said Putin’s KGB background made meant he would follow certain rules.
“By those rules, it’s very important to demonstrate to the elites who is the master in the house, meaning that Putin, who looks weaker now, should somehow present himself as the real master of Russia, which makes him, I would say, more dangerous than before this mutiny.“
“I think it means that repressions in Russia will become even more intensive... partly due to the fact that the Kremlin now sees how vulnerable it is.“
The need to demonstrate strength could also manifest itself in Putin ramping up the war in Ukraine, Petrov said.
“In the case of Russia, there could be three different options to be considered: a status quo option, a pacifying option, and an escalation option. Putin is in a weak position, meaning that escalation option is, I think, the most probable one.“
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